What’s a Recession Indicator, Exactly?

These days, a recession indicator can be found everywhere you look.

Messy buns? Recession indicator. That frozen juice from a can your grandma used to make? Recession indicator. Knee high Converse sneakers? Recession indicator.

It’s true that Donald Trump’s tariffs have some economists and much of the general public worried that a recession is incoming. But while the smart people on CNBC debate whether we’re really headed in that direction and what we can do about it, the fine people of the internet have turned the entire thing into an increasingly ludicrous meme.

Here’s why everyone’s talking about recession indicators right now, in the latest edition of TL;DR.

Give me the TL;DR.

As Americans fret about the possibility of an incoming recession, people on social media are laughing and memeing through the pain by pointing out possible “indicators” that a financial crisis is coming.

I need more. What’s the background here?

There’s a lot of upheaval in the financial markets right now. Ever since Donald Trump introduced sweeping tariffs on dozens of countries, the stock market has been volatile and the impact to consumers is looming. Basically, everything is about to get more expensive, and no one is quite sure yet what that will look like.

In April, a survey done by the National Association of Business Economics found that 4 in 10 of their forecasters believe there is a 50% chance that an economic downturn will occur, with 50% of them predicting the probability being between 25% and 49%. This is a huge jump from surveys conducted prior to the tariff announcement, the survey said.

With this possible recession, already high prices due to inflation, and the possibility of everything from baby items to clothing skyrocketing in price due to the tariffs, a lot of people are feeling a palpable sense of doom when it comes to both our personal finances and the economy at large.

There’s nothing your average person can really do about it. So, what’s the solution to quell this anxiety? Memeing through it.

What is a recession indicator, exactly?

According to social media, there’s a few basic types. One is changes in culture or lifestyle that show how people are reducing their monthly or daily costs. These include cutting down on manicures, women going back to their natural hair color, and cooking inexpensive meals like rice and beans at home.

Then there’s the recession indicators that people are spotting that seem to hearken back to one specific point in time: 2008. The cultural touchpoints year of the last great recession seems to be coming back…and could that possibly be a coincidence?

Like, capri pants are back? Everyone’s going clubbing again? Instagram ads are popping up for statement necklaces? I don’t know about you, but I’m feeling so two thousand and late, and my bank account balance is not happy.