Milwaukee Bucks Nearing The Danger Zone With Giannis Antetokounmpo

After their 123-115 loss to the Indiana Pacers on Tuesday night, the Milwaukee Bucks are now only two losses away from the start of their offseason. Damian Lillard’s unprecedented return from deep vein thrombosis in his calf wasn’t enough to overcome a well-rounded Pacers team that had all five starters finish with 15-plus points.

If the Bucks don’t hold serve at home in Games 3 and 4, this series will be all but over. The Pacers will return home for Games 5 and 7 (if necessary), which means the Bucks would need to steal two road wins to advance.

Bucks forward Giannis Antetokounmpo did everything in his power to earn the split in Game 2, finishing with 34 points on 14-of-20 shooting, 18 rebounds and seven assists in 40 minutes. The Greek Freak nearly outscored all four of the Bucks’ other starters, who combined for only 40 points.

The Bucks are now staring down the prospect of their third straight first-round playoff exit. Barring a dramatic comeback, vultures figure to soon begin circling over Milwaukee as long-term questions about Antetokounmpo’s future come back into focus.

The Bucks’ Bleak Future

Antetokounmpo is under guaranteed contract through the 2026-27 season, and he has a $62.8 million player option in 2027-28. He isn’t an immediate free-agent flight risk, but with only two guaranteed years left on his deal, there’s enormous pressure on the Bucks to improve before he develops a wandering eye.

The issue is how limited they are in that regard.

Lillard is heading into the final guaranteed year of his contract before a $58.5 million player option in 2026-27. Kyle Kuzma, the Bucks’ big trade-deadline acquisition, has two years left on his contract ($22.4 million next year and $20.4 million in 2026-27). Beyond that, the Bucks have question marks up and down their roster.

Starting center Brook Lopez, who turned 37 at the beginning of April, is set to become an unrestricted free agent this summer. Bobby Portis ($13.4 million), Pat Connaughton ($9.4 million) and Kevin Porter Jr. ($2.5 million) can join him by declining their respective player options. Beyond that, the Bucks have a handful of players on non-guaranteed contracts (AJ Green, Andre Jackson Jr. and Chris Livington) and 2024 second-round pick Tyler Smith, whose contract is only guaranteed through 2025-26.

The Bucks hit on a few minimum-salary signings this past offseason with Gary Trent Jr. and Taurean Prince, but they only have non-Bird rights on both of them. That means they can’t offer either one a new contract with a starting salary above 120% of their minimum salary unless they use a separate salary-cap exception (namely the mid-level exception). However, using the $14.1 million non-taxpayer MLE would hard-cap them at the $195.9 million first apron, while using the $5.7 million taxpayer MLE would hard-cap them at the $207.8 million second apron.

The Bucks’ draft-pick situation is bleak, too. They already owe fully unprotected first-round picks elsewhere in 2025, 2027 and 2029, while the New Orleans Pelicans have the right to swap first-rounders in 2026 and the Portland Trail Blazers have the right to do so in 2030. (They also have a complicated swap in 2028.) They’ve traded away all of their second-rounders through 2030, too, although they do have a second-round pick courtesy of the Detroit Pistons this year.

With such a depleted draft stash, the Bucks don’t have any obvious levers to pull to help bolster their supporting cast alongside Antetokounmpo and Lillard. That raises an obvious-yet-uncomfortable question.

The Danger Zone

The Bucks could run back the Antetokounmpo-Lillard tandem next year, but what can they do this summer that brings them closer to championship contention? What happens if Lopez or Portis walk in free agency? They won’t have an easy way to replace either one unless they sign-and-trade them elsewhere.

If the Bucks can’t make the necessary upgrades this offseason, will Antetokounmpo develop a wandering eye? He’s sent mixed signals in that regard over the past few months.

“I understand the business of basketball, that sometimes teams need to make the best moves that are good for their organization and for their position and for their own pursuit of greatness and championships,” he told reporters in February after the Dallas Mavericks’ shocking decision to trade Luka Dončić to the Los Angeles Lakers. “But at the same time, it goes both ways. You cannot have a double standard here.

“When the teams make the best moves for them and they believe they can get another player to win now, when a player believes that he can go to a different team and he believes he can have a chance to win a championship, we cannot crucify the person and say that he’s not loyal and he didn’t do the right thing and he let everybody down. Because history has shown you, you have to do what is best for you and your family.”

However, a few weeks later, he hinted that a trade request wouldn’t be forthcoming regardless of how this season played out.

“I don’t think that I would ever text (and ask for a trade),” Antetokounmpo told COSMOTE TV’s Vassilis Skountis and Rigas Dardalis. “I am not this kind of guy. They would have to kick me out.”

Even if Antetokounmpo doesn’t ask out, the Bucks need to be brutally honest with themselves this offseason. They’ve already burned through most of their assets. If they don’t have a clear path back to championship contention, they can either continue to circle the drain with Antetokounmpo until his and Lillard’s contracts run out, or they could be proactive and begin to shop one or both.

That likely wouldn’t be an easy sell to the Bucks’ ownership group. Teams rarely trade MVP-caliber players in their prime (this year’s Mavericks notwithstanding). But if he begins hinting that he’ll explore his options in free agency in either 2027 or 2028, the Bucks might not have a choice. The only thing worse than trading Antetokounmpo would be losing him for nothing as a free agent.

If the Bucks decide to shop Antetokounmpo this offseason with two guaranteed years left on his contract, they’d likely receive a historic haul in return. If they wait until next summer, interested suitors might not be willing to offer as much unless Antetokounmpo agrees to an extension as part of the trade.

The Bucks also have to be mindful of the league’s overall trade landscape. The Phoenix Suns are a virtual lock to trade Kevin Durant this offseason. Whichever team acquires him will likely take itself out of the running to land Antetokounmpo. If other teams shop their stars as well—keep an eye on the Atlanta Hawks (Trae Young), Memphis Grizzlies (Ja Morant) and Charlotte Hornets (LaMelo Ball) in that regard—that could reduce the number of trade partners with enough assets to acquire the Greek Freak.

Again, the Bucks don’t have to shop Antetokounmpo this offseason. Stasis is often the easiest path forward. However, they might only be delaying a harsh reality at the expense of what they could receive in return.

Unless otherwise noted, all stats via NBA.com, PBPStats, Cleaning the Glass or Basketball Reference. All salary information via Spotrac and salary-cap information via RealGM. All odds via FanDuel Sportsbook.

Follow Bryan on Bluesky.