You know college football season is right around the corner when the Associated Press releases its preseason Top 25.
Georgia is on top of the poll, comfortably ahead of No. 2 Ohio State. Big Ten newcomer Oregon ranks third, SEC newcomer Texas is fourth and Alabama, minus Nick Saban, is fifth.
To look at the bigger picture and just how good — or bad — the Top 25 teams could be this season, we turned to our ESPN Football Power Index (FPI). FPI projected win totals for every team based on 20,000 simulations of the entire season performed by our ESPN Stats & Information team, but to find a high and low, we used the middle 90% of those simulations. That gave us a ceiling and a floor in terms of expected record for each team in 2024, with extremely unlikely outliers eliminated. In other words, we identified the realistic best-case and worst-case scenarios for every team.
What can we expect for each team in the preseason AP Top 25? If everything goes right, what might each team’s record be? And if the worst scenario plays out, what would their records look like? We pulled the FPI ceilings and floors for every team, then asked our college football reporters which game in the early part of each team’s schedule would give us a good indication of whether the team would be more likely to reach its ceiling or finish closer to its floor.
Ceiling: 12-0 | Floor: 8-4
Key game: vs. Clemson at Atlanta, Aug. 31
The Bulldogs’ season opener against the Tigers at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta will provide the first look at a revamped passing game that lost star tight end Brock Bowers and receivers Ladd McConkey and Marcus Rosemy-Jacksaint. Quarterback Carson Beck will play behind one of the best offensive lines in the country, but Dominic Lovett, Dillon Bell, Arian Smith and others will be asked to step up on the perimeter. How quickly can Beck develop in-game chemistry with his new pass catchers against what should be another salty Clemson defense? — Mark Schlabach
Ceiling: 12-0 | Floor: 8-4
Key game: vs. Iowa, Oct. 5
The Buckeyes will wait a while for a true gauge, as they don’t face a nonleague opponent from a power conference. An Ohio State offense pegged to be among the nation’s best will face an Iowa defense that annually is among the stingiest and most opportunistic and features stars such as defensive back Sebastian Castro. Coach Ryan Day also is seeking more consistency from the offensive line, which should be stressed by defensive end Deontae Craig and the Iowa front. — Adam Rittenberg
Ceiling: 12-0 | Floor: 9-3
Key game: vs. Ohio State, Oct. 12
While the Ducks cannot overlook the likes of Boise State, Oregon State and Michigan State early on in their schedule, the Oct. 12 matchup against Ohio State in Eugene will set the course for their season — and their title aspirations. It will be Oregon’s first marquee matchup as part of the Big Ten and there’s a decent chance both teams will go into the game ranked among the top five in the country. — Paolo Uggetti
Ceiling: 12-0 | Floor: 8-4
Key game: vs. Oklahoma at Dallas, Oct. 12
Forget the change of conference address, Oklahoma still matters as much as ever. For one, OU has won four of the last five matchups with Texas, including last season’s 34-30 stunner when the Sooners drove 75 yards in 1:02 to win. But following a big nonconference trip to Michigan in Week 2, the Horns should be 4-1 at worst when they face the Sooners. A week later, Georgia comes to Austin with SEC title and CFP hopes on the line. — Dave Wilson
Ceiling: 12-0 | Floor: 7-5
Key game: vs. Georgia, Sept. 28
Not only will this be Kalen DeBoer’s first SEC game as Alabama’s coach, but it’s against Kirby Smart and Georgia, one of the most talented teams in the country. Everybody will be watching, especially an Alabama fan base that isn’t used to losing at home. Nick Saban went 108-9 at Bryant-Denny Stadium as Alabama’s coach and lost only one SEC game at home in his final eight seasons. — Chris Low
Ceiling: 10-2 | Floor: 6-6
Key game: at South Carolina, Oct. 5
Ole Miss has one of the most forgiving schedules to open the season in college football. The Rebels don’t go on the road in the SEC until they face the Gamecocks in Week 6. Williams-Brice Stadium is underrated in terms of difficult places to play, particularly at night. If Ole Miss rolls in there 5-0, which it should, we’ll find out a lot about the Rebels’ maturity in a hostile environment. — Low
Ceiling: 12-0 | Floor: 8-4
Key game: vs. Texas A&M, Aug. 31
Sure, the Aggies were just 7-6 last year — but that was another era. Mike Elko arrived this offseason and has injected both talent and energy into a program desperately in need of it, so this will undoubtedly be a marquee Week 1 matchup. Moreover, the game is in College Station, where even last year’s mediocre Aggies team went 6-1. Winning on the road would be a huge accomplishment for the Irish. But perhaps the most significant takeaway from this matchup will be at the line of scrimmage. Texas A&M might have as good a pass rush as any team in the country, giving Notre Dame’s new-look offensive line — which recently lost starting left tackle Charles Jagusah for the season — a massive test. If it passes that test, the Irish could easily open the season 8-0 before hosting Florida State in early November. — David Hale
Ceiling: 12-0 | Floor: 8-4
Key game: at USC, Oct. 12
Though the season opener at West Virginia figures to be tough, Penn State has a manageable first five games to the schedule. This trip to Los Angeles, however, kicks off a rugged four-game stretch that includes Wisconsin, Ohio State and Washington. A win over the Trojans would set the tone for the rest of the season — and potentially catapult Penn State into the thick of the playoff conversation. — Jake Trotter
Ceiling: 11-1 | Floor: 6-6
Key game: vs. Texas, Sept. 7
The defending champs will face the first of two meetings with CFP participants from last season in a national showcase game at Michigan Stadium. Michigan could still be sorting out its quarterback position, where seventh-year player Jack Tuttle and dual-threat junior Alex Orji are both top candidates. A Wolverines defense now led by veteran coordinator Wink Martindale and featuring stars such as cornerback Will Johnson and defensive linemen Mason Graham and Kenneth Grant will be tested by quarterback Quinn Ewers and a Texas offense that should thrive up front and on the perimeter. — Rittenberg
Ceiling: 12-0 | Floor: 6-6
Key game: vs. Georgia Tech at Dublin, Aug. 24
Opening in Ireland against a good Georgia Tech team, then following that up with a Labor Day night game at home against Boston College, should give us a good feel for where Florida State stands right out of the gate. On paper, some might expect the Seminoles to roll over both the Yellow Jackets and Eagles. But playing overseas, no matter the opponent, provides a unique set of challenges. And Boston College nearly upset Florida State a season ago. Two more games in the first half of the schedule to keep an eye on: at SMU on Sept. 28, then home vs. Clemson on Oct. 5. — Andrea Adelson
Ceiling: 11-1 | Floor: 7-5
Key game: at Texas A&M, Oct. 5
Missouri’s first four opponents this fall — Murray State, Buffalo, Boston College and Vanderbilt — won a combined 14 games during the 2023 season, so the Tigers’ first true test may not come until they travel to College Station on the first weekend in October. A relatively favorable schedule this fall means Missouri must take advantage of its opportunities to post high-quality wins. A victory at Kyle Field would bolster the Tigers’ postseason hopes and hand Eli Drinkwitz a résumé-cushion before late-season meetings with Alabama and Oklahoma. — Eli Lederman
Ceiling: 11-1 | Floor: 5-7
Key game: at Oklahoma State, Sept. 21
The Utes’ true introduction into the Big 12 will come Sept. 21 when they head to Stillwater to face off against Oklahoma State. Kyle Whittingham’s team is expected to contend for the conference title and a win against the Cowboys — who expect to contend for that same title — would set them well on their way to reaching that goal. — Uggetti
Ceiling: 10-2 | Floor: 5-7
Key game: vs. USC at Las Vegas, Sept. 1
The Tigers won’t have to tangle with former Heisman Trophy-winning quarterback Caleb Williams and receivers Brenden Rice and Tahj Washington in the opener in Las Vegas, but the Trojans should still be a good test for LSU’s rebuilt defense. The Tigers were woefully inept at stopping opponents in 2023, leading Brian Kelly to lure Missouri defensive coordinator Blake Baker to Baton Rouge. USC quarterback Miller Moss played well in a 42-28 victory over Louisville in the Holiday Bowl, throwing for 372 yards with six touchdowns. — Schlabach
Ceiling: 11-1 | Floor: 6-6
Key game: vs NC State, Sept. 21
We’re tempted to say the Georgia game will be the telltale matchup of the season for Clemson, but that’s like judging Clemson’s chances to win a game of Hungry, Hungry Hippos against an actual hippopotamus. It’ll be interesting, but it probably isn’t relevant to what the rest of the season will look like. The Week 3 matchup with the Wolfpack — a team that has beaten Clemson two of the past three years and is far more talented in 2024 than in either of those previous seasons — will be a far better indication of the Tigers’ ACC title hopes and something of a preview of how well Dabo Swinney’s crew will hold up two weeks later against Florida State. — Hale
Ceiling: 11-1 | Floor: 6-6
Key game: vs. NC State at Charlotte, North Carolina, Sept. 7
After a home opener with Chattanooga, Tennessee will get an early test in Week 2 against NC State at Bank of America Stadium. Quarterback Nico Iamaleava’s first regular-season start away from Knoxville will come against a Wolfpack secondary that led the ACC in interceptions last season. A talented offense led by Coastal Carolina transfer quarterback Grayson McCall should present an early challenge to a promising Volunteers defense. In Charlotte, Josh Heupel & Co. can claim a résumé-building win and an early tone-setter for Tennessee’s 2024 season. — Lederman
Ceiling: 11-1 | Floor: 6-6
Key game: vs. Tulane, Sept. 14
Oklahoma’s stiffest pre-SEC tune-up may well come when Tulane visits Norman for the third time since 2017. Oregon quarterback transfer Ty Thompson and running back Makhi Hughes, the reigning AAC Rookie of the Year, should test the Sooners’ experienced defense, and a Green Wave defense that held opponents to 20.5 points per game will challenge first-year starter Jackson Arnold. A week before Tennessee visits to open SEC play, Oklahoma can’t overlook Tulane — it was only three years ago that the Green Wave nearly upset the Sooners in Norman. — Lederman
Ceiling: 10-2 | Floor: 5-7
Key game: vs. South Dakota State, Aug. 31
Oklahoma State opens its 2024 campaign with a visit from reigning FCS national champion South Dakota State, the division’s top-ranked program in the FCS Coaches Poll. More important games lie ahead for the Cowboys in the first half of the season, with visits from Arkansas (Sept. 7) and Utah (Sept. 21) and a Sept. 28 trip to Kansas State, but the first challenge to Oklahoma State’s CFP aspirations comes against the Jackrabbits on the opening weekend of the regular season. Remember: The Cowboys suffered a 33-7 home loss to South Alabama last September before rolling to the Big 12 title game. — Lederman
Ceiling: 11-1 | Floor: 6-6
Key game: vs. Oklahoma State, Sept. 28
The Wildcats face a strong Arizona team Sept. 13, but it’s considered a nonconference game since it was scheduled in 2016. Two weeks later, K-State hosts Oklahoma State in what is likely to be an early battle for conference supremacy. Both have made Big 12 championship game appearances in the past two seasons, including Kansas State claiming the 2022 title. But the Wildcats have lost four of the past five meetings with the Cowboys. — Wilson
Ceiling: 11-1 | Floor: 6-6
Key game: at Florida, Aug. 31
The season opener against Florida will provide plenty of immediate answers about Miami. Is Cam Ward as advertised? How big a boost does Damien Martinez give the run game? Will the secondary have enough depth? A win, and the hype train will continue to roll — especially with a manageable ACC schedule ahead (games against Virginia Tech and Florida State are at home). A loss, and there will be plenty of questions about how the Canes respond moving forward. It will be important, however, to keep in mind that a nonconference loss here will not make or break Miami’s playoff hopes. — Adelson
Ceiling: 10-2 | Floor: 5-7
Key game: vs. Notre Dame, Aug. 31
You couldn’t draw up a more fascinating matchup for Mike Elko’s debut at Texas A&M. A Fighting Irish team with serious CFP expectations, led by Elko’s former Duke quarterback Riley Leonard, is coming to College Station for a prime-time showdown at Kyle Field. That’s as good as it gets for a signature victory opportunity to kick off a new era for the Aggies. — Max Olson
Ceiling: 11-1 | Floor: 5-7
Key game: at Kansas State, Sept. 13
Arizona will have a good sense of how it will stack up against the best of the Big 12 after going to Kansas State on Sept. 13. In a unique twist, this game won’t count as a conference game because it has been on the books for several years — before the Wildcats joined the league. — Kyle Bonagura
Ceiling: 12-0 | Floor: 6-6
Key game: at Kansas State, Oct. 26
When your archrival has beaten you 15 straight times, as Kansas State has to Kansas, that game holds some psychic power over your season. The Jayhawks are a legitimate Big 12 threat, but before last year, the Wildcats had won the previous four meetings by an average score of 44-15, before Kansas lost an 11-point lead in a 31-27 heartbreaker last season. With a favorable schedule that doesn’t include Utah, Oklahoma State or Arizona, the Sunflower Showdown looms large. — Wilson
Ceiling: 10-2 | Floor: 4-8
Key game: at Michigan, Sept. 21
In their first game without Caleb Williams at quarterback, Lincoln Riley and USC will have a tall task: beating a talented LSU team at a neutral site to open up the season. But the “welcome to the Big Ten moment” will come a few weeks later when the Trojans head to the Big House to face off against the defending champions Michigan. — Uggetti
Ceiling: 11-1 | Floor: 6-6
Key game: vs. Tennessee, Sept. 7
No, the game against Tennessee won’t make or break the season for NC State, thanks to the guaranteed playoff spot for the ACC champion. But the Tennessee game is critical for two reasons. The first is it represents a major test for the Wolfpack’s new-look offense. If NC State can match the explosive Vols offense score-for-score, it will be a great sign that the Pack are truly as dangerous as this unit looks on paper. But almost as significant is the narrative this game will help set. Florida State and Clemson get the benefit of the doubt as blue bloods when it comes to playoff positioning. NC State needs to put some proof into its pudding. A win over Tennessee could be the résumé item needed if the Wolfpack don’t win the ACC but are jockeying for an at-large playoff bid. — Hale
Ceiling: 10-2 | Floor: 4-8
Key game: at Ohio State, Oct. 5
With no Penn State, Oregon, Michigan or USC on the schedule, the Hawkeyes own one of the Big Ten’s more favorable slates. The Hawkeyes don’t have to knock off Ohio State to make it to the Big Ten championship game. But an upset victory in Columbus could elevate Iowa into prime position to make it to Indy, and potentially, the playoff. — Trotter
